Saturday, June 26, 2010

The French as Deficit Hawks??

With strict austerity measures all the rage in Europe these days (everyone from the Germans and Brits to the French and Italians), I can only speculate as to the driver behind this seemingly unlikely sobering-up of once profligates.

Hypotheses:

1. The Europeans are convinced of the thought that tax cuts are more likely than spending increases to induce growth, while smaller budget deficits will inspire consumer/investor confidence and reduce interest rates. Commentary by Martin Wolf.

2. While the stubbornness and hesitancy of the Germans did not inspire confidence in the general public, the internal divides were even greater in private. Most EU states recognize that the EU emergency fund is a paper tiger and that Germany has not the will (or domestic political capital) to save even the French or Italians.

3. The above arguments, along with the global economic crisis, are suitable justifications for Western European governments to sell necessary reforms and fundamentally restructure their economies a la Deutschland to become more competitive via the rest of the world and more sustainable in the long term given demographics.

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