Reinventing the Color Wheel in Berlin

For the last decade Germany's political landscape has been characterized by an increasing fragmentation of power from its traditional large parties (the Volksparteien) to the three smaller parties (the Greens, the FDP, and die Linke). What was to have been a return to the FRG's most traditional and comfortable coalition (CDU/CSU and FDP) has proven to be anything but stable. The coalition has been beset with fundamental policy divergences over the social system and foreign policy, often exacerbated by FDP chief and FM Westerwelle's contentious and impatient statements. In fact, the popularity of the FDP, whose 2009 Bundestag election results (15%) were a record showing, has dwindled back to regular levels (10%). This may indicate that the FDP's groundswell of support was simply a vote for stability and that similar future results should not be expected. If this is indeed the case, the Volksparteien may be forced to chose between entirely new federal coalition formations or a return to the dreaded Grand Coalition in order to form a majority government. These new coalitions are being tested on the state (Landtag) level and are illustrative of the problems besetting the parties. As the most populous Bundesland, the May Landtag elections in North Rhine-Westphalia may be an indication of Germany's future political landscape.

In August 2009 in Saarland elections, the Greens were rendered "Kingmaker" as the CDU/FDP and SPD/die Linke both received around 45% of the vote. Though traditionally closer to the SPD, the Greens turned their nose to their traditional ally and signed up with the CDU-led coalition. Lesson: the Greens appear more comfortable with the CDU and FDP than a coalition with the SPD that includes die Linke.

Also in August 2009 in Thuringia the SPD and CDU were forced back into a Grand Coalition as the CDU could not form a majority with the FDP and/or Greens and the SPD was unwilling to build a coalition with die Linke, owing to the SPD's "promise" not to cooperate with die Linke in former West German states. Later in September following elections in Brandenburg, the SPD broke their Grand Coalition with the CDU and built a coalition with die Linke. Lesson: If the SPD would like to gain or remain in power at the state level, or perhaps even the federal level, they will need to either siphon votes from die Linke or cooperate with them.

Industrial NRW, formerly a bastion of the pro-labor SPD, has been governed by a CDU-FDP coalition since 2005. Current polling by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in the NRW Landtag election: CDU (37%), SPD (33%), the Greens (12%), FDP (8%), and die Linke (6%). This early polling data indicates that neither Volkspartei will be able to form a majority coalition with their preferred partner. A Grand Coalition would not be optimal for either party, but remains possible. The CDU, however, appears to be silently courting the Greens behind the back of their federal-level coalition partner the FDP. Given the many problems in the federal-level CDU/CSU-FDP coalition, the first-ever CDU-Green coalition in the Hamburg Landtag seems to be quietly working. If Merkel's CDU and Westerwelle's FDP are no longer the bedfellows the parties once were, could the anti-establishment Greens and the very-establishment CDU be Germany's most viable coalition?